U.S. District judge Henry E. Hudson ruled that the interstate commerce clause has no power to compel individuals to buy policies from private health insurers. Unfortunately judge Hudson also found that this clause was severable from the legislation, leaving the rest of Obamacare intact. Despite this outcome, many believe that the elimination of the individual mandate must lead to the downfall of Obamacare. According to this line of thinking, if the government outlaws actuarially accurate premiums, by forbidding insurers from taking account of pre-existing conditions, people will just wait until they get sick to apply for health insurance.
This is precisely what happened in a number of states, such as New York, when they imposed these limits on the market for individual health insurance. Premiums skyrocketed and only older and sicker people bought coverage. Such a “market” cannot survive.
Unfortunately, this will not be the case with Obamacare. Once the political class expresses a sentiment for “universal coverage” it will assert control of people’s access to medical care irrespective of an individual mandate. The actual mechanism is a “death spiral” of taxation and subsidy.
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